5 NFL Rookies To Watch Ahead of December Football Releases

5 NFL Rookies To Watch Ahead of December Football Releases

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It’s Fall and the NFL football season is in full swing! The Thanksgiving games are behind us, the playoff picture is starting to take shape, and a few big card releases are just around the corner.

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Flawless Collegiate and Absolute Football are both set to drop within the next week, and Mosaic is scheduled for the end of December. While we’re still a few months out from the really big releases, we should start to see some graded singles for ‘22 rookies start to pop up the market over the next few months. 

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Most of the NFL product that’s out now is collegiate product, which can be a polarizing investment. While it’s true that the collegiate stuff usually drops in value once the NFL uniform cards hit the market later on, there are still collectors interested in buying and selling these cards, especially in these next few months where they’ll be the only ‘22 draft class product on the market.

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Whether you plan on buying the December NFL releases or not, it’s time to start brushing up on which NFL rookies collectors should have their eyes on if they’re looking to make a smart investment. In a sport like football where player values can swing wildly from week-to-week (especially in the playoffs), getting into the market early is the name of the game.

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So without further ado, here’s 5 NFL rookies that have the potential to go up in value in the coming months.

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1. Garrett Wilson (WR, New York Jets)
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Garrett Wilson is off to a good start in his tenure with the Jets. He’s been a staple on an overachieving Jets team, and it looks likely that he’ll be a big part of this franchise for years to come. In many ways Wilson is a perfect investment candidate as he checks all the important boxes that investors should be looking for:

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• Position of importance: ✅
• Team in the playoff hunt: ✅
• Plays in a big market: ✅
• In the rookie of the year conversations: ✅

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The fact that the Jets are in the playoffs is huge for Wilson’s potential value. Most of the good NFL rookies are on bad teams, which is to be expected. Good teams don’t generally rely on the services of inexperienced players.
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That said, when rookies do take on big roles on playoff teams, they have the potential to explode in value in February. The NFL market is arguably more reactionary than any other sport – all Wilson needs is one clutch playoff moment, and half of America will convince themselves that the Jets have the next Randy Moss.
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If you need proof, take a look at Joe Burrow last year. His playoff success last year resulted in a 25% spike in his Prizm value over a two month period. Ungraded non-rookie Prizms were going for $100. Flash forward nine months later, and Burrow cards are down a whopping 70% from their prime. Lesson learned: cash in while your player is hot. 

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To be fair, there are some differences between Wilson and Burrow. Burrow is a QB (most important position), and he did take his team to the Super Bowl (highly unlikely outcome for this Jets team.) Plus, the Jets are far from a lock to even make the playoffs at this point, as they are currently clinging on to the final wildcard spot heading into week 13.

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But if you do want to bet on the Jets chances, odds are decent that Wilson will be one of the rookies getting the most attention this playoff season. He should be available at a pretty reasonable price, and a big playoff performance could mean a big profit for investors looking to flip Wilson. 

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2. Kenneth Walker (RB, Seattle Seahawks)

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By most of the important metrics Kenneth Walker is having the best rookie season of any of the rookie running backs. And I say that with no disrespect to Dameon Price, who is looking poised to become the face of a hapless Texans franchise, but Walker has been outstanding since taking over the full-time role for the Seahawks.

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He leads all rookie rushers with 7 TD’s and has averaged 4.9 yards per carry; numbers that put him in the mix with some of the league’s better players at his positions.  

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Kenneth Walker is not an undervalued player, and the downside of investing in him is that he will be selling at a high price right off the bat. Still, there’s reason to believe that he’ll still go up in value even more in the next few months.

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Why? Well, mainly because he’s currently the odds on favorite to win rookie of the year.

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Awards really shouldn’t mean as much as they do. We already know what the player is based on what we’ve seen on the field. Still, every year players get a nice little bump once they have that trophy on the shelf.

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Last year’s Offensive ROY Ja’Marr chase saw about a 40% bump in value in his Prizm Draft Pick card across all grades in the weeks following the season. While those numbers are inflated by the Bengals’ improbable Super Bowl run, there’s no doubt some of it had to do with the importance of winning that award. 

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If you’re willing to bet that Kenneth Walker is the Rookie of the Year then getting your hands on some of his products is a good idea ASAP. Even if he doesn’t, Walker is still a solid hold who will likely become one of the league’s premier players at an important position.

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3. Wan’ Dale Robinson (WR, New York Giants)

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The Giant’s Cinderella season spoiled a bit last week when breakout rookie WR Wan’ Dale Robinson tore his ACL in the middle of a career high 100-yard performance.

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Robinson had previously been in rookie of the year talks, and was becoming a beloved player in a huge market that has been starved of success for close to a decade. He was shaping up to be one of the hottest rookies in the ‘22 class prior to the injury.

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On one hand I get it; ACL tears are scary, and some young players never quite return to their old form. It’s the type of injury that can tank a player's value. Some investors hate the uncertainty that comes with a major injury, and others will simply lose interest and move on to other prospects.

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But I liked what I saw from Robinson this season and I don’t think it’s wise to disregard all of the reasons he was poised to be a big seller this off-season. If he is selling for significantly lower than his rookie counterparts, he could end up being a great buy and stash player who’s ready for a revenge tour in his sophomore season.

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4. Kenny Pickett (QB, Pittsburgh Steelers)

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Kenny Pickett has been one of the most confusing rookies in the ‘22 class. 

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He’s shown flashes of competency, but his critics argue about his lack of upside. It seems like everyone associated with the Steelers franchise has weighed on whether Pickett really has the potential to be Pittsburgh’s QB of the future.

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Regardless of Pickett’s future, he’s got to be on this list by default. He’s the highest profile QB in his class and I’d be remiss not to include at least one QB here. QB’s are by far and away the most important position for NFL collectors, and also the ones most prone to crazy hype when things go well.

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For people looking to buy and flip NFL cards, QB's are generally a wise choice because the value can skyrocket after a big moment or an upward trend, and it’s fairly easy to sell the product in the midst of the mania.

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If Pickett ends up being anything close to the Steelers long term solution at QB investing in him early will be a good move.

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5. Sauce Gardner (CB, New York Jets)

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I know, I know… I can already feel the pushback. A defensive player as a top 5 investment pick?

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Yes, it might sound crazy, but there’s good reason to believe Sauce Gardner's card value might have some decent upside. For one, defensive players are becoming increasingly popular every season. Last year TJ Watt was a top-10 jersey seller league wide.

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Secondly, Gardner checks all of the other important boxes. As I mentioned before, the Jets, who haven’t made the postseason since 2010, are in the playoff hunt. They’ve built their identity around defensive toughness and Sauce Gardner has been an anchor in his rookie year.

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Plus, they just benched their young QB Zach Wilson. Fans are going to look to more unconventional positions to appoint as the stars of this team, and Sauce Gardner is a perfect candidate. 

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It’s been a weird season for rookies. Hardly any of the major ones will factor into the playoffs, and the talent at the QB position is worse than it’s been for years. Gardner might be ready to take advantage of those gaps, and there’s a chance we see this defensive stalwart rise in value as the playoffs get closer. 

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Hey Eric, How are you?

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I noticed your great content on Twitter, even though we don't know one another personally.

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I'm Barak Edut, Director of B2C at AnyLot, a free tool that monitors and learns millions of sports cards from hundreds of marketplaces and auction sites to notify collectors every time we find cards that match their collection.

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If this sounds interesting to you, it will be an honor to get your thoughts and feedback on some of the exciting things we are working on here for the community.

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